House Prices in 2026 and Where Buyers Face Competition
According to KPMG’s latest outlook, national house prices are set to climb about 7.7% in 2026. In other words, the house price forecast 2026 remains surprisingly strong – buoyed by low supply and new policies even as interest rate uncertainty lingers. This momentum means buyers must be prepared: competition is heating up in many markets, especially at the affordable end.
Hot Markets vs Balanced Markets
The strongest gains will be in those cities already under pressure. Perth leads the pack (prices up ~12.8% next year), and Brisbane and Darwin also see very high growth (~10–11%). Adelaide is solid too (~8%), while Sydney and Melbourne are forecast for more moderate rises (around 5–7%). In short, buyer competition will be fiercest in Perth, Brisbane and Darwin – these are seller’s markets next year. More balanced opportunities may exist in cities like Canberra, Hobart or even Sydney, where fundamentals are strong but growth is less extreme. This underscores why city choice matters far more than any national average.
Entry-Level and Unit Markets
Lower-priced homes are expected to outperform again. KPMG notes that the expanded 5% Deposit Scheme has turbocharged first-home and low-budget buying, driving young buyers into bidding wars at the entry level. In other words, the most affordable houses will see the stiffest competition. By contrast, the upper end of the market faces tighter borrowing limits and less growth.
Unit (apartment) markets are also heating up. Nationally, unit prices are forecast to rise about 7.1% in 2026 – roughly matching house gains. Many buyers squeezed by prices are shifting to apartments, pushing Darwin units up ~13.4% and Perth units ~11.6%. Even in Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide, strong unit gains are expected. Rental markets remain very tight too – rents are likely to grow ~3.5% per year – underscoring that supply is not keeping up with demand.
Strategy Tips for 2026 Buyers
In our experience as buyer’s agents, success comes down to a data-driven plan. Here are the key steps we recommend:
- Crunch the numbers. First, know what you can truly afford. Use tools like our [Borrowing Power calculator][8] to factor in deposit, stamp duty and repayments. Recent rate cuts have boosted borrowing capacity, but only use that buffer to stay within your comfort zone.
- Stay calm and stick to the budget. The fiercest competition is at the lower end. As experts warn, don’t let “FOMO” make you over-bid. Set a hard limit and be willing to walk away.
- Focus on fundamentals. Look beyond short-term hype. Compare locations by long-term growth and rental yield. For example, an affordable house in a growth suburb or a high-yield apartment might be a smarter choice than an overpriced property in an overheated market. We can help you break down these metrics (e.g. expected capital growth vs. yield) so your decision is driven by data, not nerves.
Get Support from Industry’s Experts
With strong gains forecast, now is the time to lock in a clear strategy. We at D’MANSHA are ready to help. Call us at 0406 11 22 44 or book a free consultation to discuss your goals and timing. For more tips, check out our Instagram and LinkedIn to learn about our process of working for you.